Looking ahead on building and construction in Aotearoa/New Zealand

The Pipeline Report provides a projection of national building and construction activity for the six years from December 2022 to 31 December 2028. It features breakdowns based on the type of building activity; residential, non-residential and infrastructure nationwide, as well as breakdowns by region; Auckland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Wellington, Canterbury, Otago and the rest of Aotearoa/New Zealand.

The overall activity forecast is positive. Projections show the sector will settle into more sustainable levels of activity where the gap between supply and demand is much closer than it has been in recent years.

Several indicators show that the unprecedented post-covid demand for residential building is alleviating significantly. Short-term reductions across various measures in the report suggest activity fluctuations in the sector are being less affected by covid and returning to a more usual pattern. 

There are four key findings in the report this year:

• Construction activity returns to 2020 levels.
  Overall activity in the sector is forecast to experience a short-term decrease, returning to levels similar to 2020, and remain steady at that level before increasing from 2028.

• New dwelling consents returning to more sustainable levels.
  The number of building consents issued in the last year suggest we have passed the unprecedented post-covid demand and are realigning with more usual levels of fluctuations.

• Strong pipeline of work.
  The forecast value of non-residential building work remains steady over the reporting period, this is supported by recent increases and a projected value peak in 2023.

• Strong infrastructure pipeline.
  Recovery from the extreme weather events in early 2023 and works to increase resilience throughout the country are key drivers in a projected increase in infrastructure works. The value of infrastructure work is expected to reach a new high in 2026 and remain steady from that point onward.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment commissions the report, which is jointly prepared each year by the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ) and Pacifecon (NZ) Ltd. This is the 11th annual edition.

The aim of the report is to provide awareness of the expected pipeline of work to coordinate construction procurement and support planning, investment in skills and capital equipment to meet the sector’s future needs. Having foresight into these areas could help mitigate uncertainty and allow for better preparedness across the sector.

Read the full National Construction Pipeline report 2023 - mbie.govt.nz